Late Season Pumps and a possible reason why
Indo Season Discussion pt.1 -
The Past 4 Seasons Overviewed & ENSO
As you may already know we spend our Indo season's in a place we call Secret Sumatra. It has been 4 years now and we have noticed some shifts in the weather in this time. We have also noticed some very prominent weather patterns repeated over each season.
The topic I would like to talk about today is the shifts we have seen over the past 4 years. I will also be also discussing a weather pattern called ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Now as we look at the seasons we have spent here, we remember our first two seasons to be unbelievably consistent, so consistent that we we're seeing 2-3 swells of 6ft + per week, so we we're getting 4-6 days a week of 6-10ft surf especially in the early and late season
It was like heaven on earth, the forecasts were correlating and we learned more about our area than ever before. During those non stop periods the only thing we we're hoping for was a couple of days break each week as 9 hr days of surfing we're common as we're sunburn and fatigue, and if you were one of our guests during those periods you would know what I mean.
When we hit last year (2008) we really noticed a shift in the weather patterns. Strong high pressure systems were dominating the Indian Ocean with a summer like pattern in the middle of the Australian winter (our mid season). So you might be thinking what does that mean?
It's basically a road block, one of those ones where you can still get through but it has slowed down the traffic considerably. So in this pattern the lows will oscillate much lower, closer to Antarctica. The swells find it hard to penetrate through this road block and the forecasts we ever so trusted seemed to be eluding us. They were all saying different things and it was hard to know what to make of it all.
That was when we learned the highs we're dominating. Now this pattern was mostly in effect over the past two seasons, while the swells we're still slightly penetrating, they had nowhere near the force and shape of the previous two seasons.
We had noticed this pattern briefly mid season in the previous years however it was short lived at 2-3 weeks not 2-3 months which you may have experienced if you we're in Indo over the 08-09 dry seasons.
The Light
One thing we noticed this year was that mid June to early July was pumping, similarly to what we experienced in 06-07. It was then when we say the highs weakening and we were thinking it's happening, it's going back to normal, let the good times roll. This period was short lived of about three weeks. Then we went back to the standard high blocked swells which still do make it through it's just like the guts had been knocked out of them, being unorganized and half the expected size.
Then September happened and it was around the middle we noticed the highs weakening again with a major improvement in swell, while the swells have continued pumping through October.
Now back to ENSO. In August I noticed an article on stormsurf.com. It was talking about an possible ENSO pattern coming into effect. They noticed the average surface pressure was lower over Tahiti and higher over Darwin, which apparently is a classic sign for El Nino, along with certain weather patterns like big hurricanes in the States. Which happened around the same time as our pumping run of swells in June-July. They said the pattern was pointing towards ENSO however it had retracted, which does happen and that they would be monitoring those particular areas in the coming months.
This got me thinking , maybe this will be good for Indo. From what I had heard El Nino is what the North Pacific loves, Hawaii pumps in El Nino patterns but if we are seeing swells coincide with these events, is it a sign for the next few Indo seasons?
So at this point Im thinking maybe it's just a coincidence, then the waves pumped late season and that's when I saw an article on another surf forcasting site, Surfline.com. The article was confirming that the ENSO is in effect. Which made my next observation interesting, pumping swells late season in Indo coinciding with pumping swells hitting Hawaii in September. Now i'm starting to feel this isn't a coincidence and it's getting me excited thinking about the forthcoming Indo season being a repeat of what we experienced in '06-'07 - non stop swells. I say bring it on!
Dean Fergus
For a more in depth look at ENSO check the below links
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
http://www.surfline.com/forecast/abnormal-june-2009---el-nino-to-blame_28651/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niņo-Southern_Oscillation
Keep posted for - Secret Sumatra's Indo Discussions pt.2 - Mid Season Vs. Early/Late Season
